tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5773875.post109527251163770559..comments2023-11-06T01:56:43.668+14:00Comments on Sandcastles and Cubicles: Exclusive: The hidden demographicUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5773875.post-1095367372997541252004-09-17T10:42:00.000+14:002004-09-17T10:42:00.000+14:00Cell phones don't get called because only the last...Cell phones don't get called because only the last 4 numbers are randomly generated. The 3 digit exchange numbers (and area codes) are chosen specifically to use the demographic data on those echanges. <br /><br />As a pollster, I would want to make sure I hit all areas that I was covering in my poll proportionally to the number of people in each area. This will give me a more representative sample. Cell phones, since they are not tied to geography are useless for this so cell phone exchanges are never used in random samples (well, never as far as I know). <br /><br />Caller Id and Call screening is also a problem for pollsters, lowering the sample accuracy and possibly biasing the results. For example, if wealthy people are more likely to screen their calls than poor people you end up with a survery biased toward the poor. If the pollster believes this is going on, he will adjust his poll results to reflect this bias.Dave Justushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04139807963654242625noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5773875.post-1095360117075892632004-09-17T08:41:00.000+14:002004-09-17T08:41:00.000+14:00hmmm if the numbers are randomly generated that wo...hmmm if the numbers are randomly generated that would remove the cell phone problem, because those would get called to0, right?<br /><br />Most cell phones and house phones have caller id (even my parents have it, now), which i can only guess that would hurt pollers, because they don't leave messages to call them back<br /><br />I know i answer about half the numbers i don't recgonize.<br /><br />intresting...Man of Issacharhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01286646646103516828noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5773875.post-1095355817342143012004-09-17T07:30:00.000+14:002004-09-17T07:30:00.000+14:00I used to work in a technical capacity at a politi...I used to work in a technical capacity at a political polling phone bank and I can tell you that you have correctly evaluated a number of problems with political polling and that these problems are getting worse.<br /><br />The science/art of political polling of course is to extimate from your sample how accurately the sample reflects the population as a whole with the population in this case being those who will actually turn out to vote.<br /><br />Cell phones as primary phones are one particular growing phenomenon that is troubling to polsters as this is a signifigant demographic, with similar traits, that is difficult to evaluate.<br /><br />On the other hand, contact info or unlisted phone numbers is less of a problem. The majority of political polls use random digit dialing to generate their sample. This means that they randomly generate the numbers that they call so even unlisted people get phone calls.<br /><br />The methods used to evaluate the final results of a poll and adjust it to match known demographics are a large factor in what causes different polls to have very different numbers.Dave Justushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04139807963654242625noreply@blogger.com