Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Iran and being backed against a wall

I haven't posted in a while. I have been spending my time getting engaged, learning how to cook, and visiting 1800 year old churches. But I intend to allot a little more of my time on this page.

The biggest thing I have been following in the news has been Iran. It is really a delicate problem and our president isn't exactly known for dealing with things delicately. One side is calling for no military action. This presents several problems. Iran is the fourth largest exporter of oil in the world. This gives it plently of leverage with other nations, and as oil rises past $70 a barrel, sanctions would hurt the rest of the world more than they would hurt Iran. Also, economic sanctions in no way guarantees that Iran will abandon its nuclear ambitions.

Others want to wait it out. They say that it is unlikely that Iran could make a nuclear weapon in less than six years, and even if they did they would be unlikely to use it for offensive purposes. I would like to remind these people that Iran is one of the largest state sponsors of terrorism, and any nuclear capabilities could be transferred to any of its pet terror groups. And while a convential warhead may be out of their reach at this moment, they are definitely capable of creating plenty of dirty bombs, which would be more practical for terrorists in any case.

So it looks like military action is the only option left, doesn't it? But even this presents problems. The US has hundreds of thousands of troops withing striking distance of Iran. Any bombing sets us up for retalitory attacks. If Iran pursued this option we could be facing a long, protracted, and costly war. It could be a war that we can't fight with our current resources. We have spread ourselves thin with Afghanistan and Iraq. If Iran took the war to Iraq, we would not only lost anything that we have built there so far, but it is likely that the numerous Shiite militias would support Shiite-led Iran. As other countries get involved based on their need for oil, geographic location, and religious affiliation, we could be looking at a potential world war. A world war with nukes.

And diplomacy is obviously failing. We don't have too much to offer Iran, and they seem to be obstinate just because they can. They seem to delight in causing a such a major problem. We can only hope a few good earthquakes do them all in.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

6 years? Let's see, how long did it take the Manhattan Project? 2-3?

And that was developing everything as they went along.

More than 6 years? I don't think so.