Thursday, October 07, 2004

Turkey

Turkey has been trying to get into the EU for quite some time now. They are almost in. There is one final hurdle to jump, "EU leaders are expected to deliver a final opinion on whether to open talks with Turkey."

Contrary to popular belief the EU and Turkey do have something in common. They both hate Jews. Hah Hah...I am just kidding, people.

I really do not want to concentrate on the present circumstances of Turkey and the EU. I know very little about each of the parties goals, what membership into the EU means, and why it matters. I would like to take a look at what could happen if Turkey is not allowed in. What would happen if they are forcefully denied entry into the EU?

If turkey wanted in and they were denied, I think there would be a back lash of anger from the population. They are apart of NATO, but they cannot play with the EU. There could be many different reactions from turkey. One options is that out of spite they could seek a comparable trade deal with a competitor. Some of their options are seeking entry into an Asian trading bloc, seeking a trade agreement with the US, or trying to create a Muslim trading bloc.

I have no opinion on the viability of them seeking entry into an Asian trading bloc (if one even exist). They do not really like America, but their is a small chance that they would be willing to join in a trade agreement out of spite, especially if our nation building projects turn our real good.

The third and final option is the most interesting one. There could be several Muslim nations, in the not so far flung future, that could be ready to exercise their collective power to compete against the EU. From my limited knowledge of the area some of the countries that come to mind are: Afghanistan (30 million), Iraq (25 million), Kuwait (2 million), Libya (5 million), Turkey (70 million), Pakistan ( 160 million). If all of the individual problems are solved at once, you could have a large group of people looking to make their lives better. If they collectively decide a trading block is the way to do that you could end up with some strange results.


The EU is able to provide some very power incentives to promote democratic reform and economic reform. Could a MU (Muslim Union) provide similar incentives? Possibly, if there was a strong core of members who supported the democratic polices they were trying export. The idea is an interesting thought experiment.

cube

4 comments:

Gib said...

I think the whole process is a sham, myself. The Europeans don't want Turkey, but the reason they don't (they're Muslim) isn't something they're proud of, so they'll string the Turks along and wait for a pretext. And once the Turks catch on, things will not be pleasant.

Cubicle said...

agreed, and when turkey gets angry they will take some other ones with them.

Dave Justus said...

I don't think a Muslim union is likely. Muslims are a pretty diverse group with lots of different culteral traditions even if they are Muslim.

More importantly perhaps, is that a fairly uniform government structure would have to exist across the Union and it would have to be contiguous. While Turkey is contiguous with Iraq, it is not with Afghanistan or Libya. It is also difficult to imagine a strong union of Democratic Turkey, Totalitarian Libya and Pakistan, and Monarchic Kuwait. Perhaps such a union could take place after a major Democratization of the region and enough time has passed to let everyone feel comfortable with the stability of the new order.

By that time though, Europe itself will be Muslim due to probably irreversible demographic changes. Of course this does present the possibility of a Democratic Muslim nation stretching from Pakistan, through the Middle East, Across North Africa and covering Western Europe.

Cubicle said...

"Of course this does present the possibility of a Democratic Muslim nation stretching from Pakistan, through the Middle East, Across North Africa and covering Western Europe."
I had considered that also, though i think that could be the second phase. I think initally this will start out between the few countires that are very democratic, then spread

I also think US should encourage high level trade deals between the countires that we are setting up goverments. That should be encourage strongly.

also i would like to point out that the EU has it used it's power to increase demorcratic refrom.

So if you have a few members (strong members) that held up the carrot of free trade, in exchange for reforming the goverment you could see some results.

Secondly,

"I don't think a Muslim union is likely. Muslims are a pretty diverse group with lots of different culteral traditions even if they are Muslim. "

And Europe is not. they can't even agree on a consitution for their EU. Europe has fought wars against each other. If Europe can get along, maybe the muslims can also.


Thirdly, technolgy speeds up many things in life, could it speed up democratizion of countires as well.

Is this possible in our lifetime, maybe, proable....lord knows