Turkey has been trying to get into the EU for quite some time now. They are almost in. There is one final hurdle to jump, "EU leaders are expected to deliver a final opinion on whether to open talks with Turkey."
Contrary to popular belief the EU and Turkey do have something in common. They both hate Jews. Hah Hah...I am just kidding, people.
I really do not want to concentrate on the present circumstances of Turkey and the EU. I know very little about each of the parties goals, what membership into the EU means, and why it matters. I would like to take a look at what could happen if Turkey is not allowed in. What would happen if they are forcefully denied entry into the EU?
If turkey wanted in and they were denied, I think there would be a back lash of anger from the population. They are apart of NATO, but they cannot play with the EU. There could be many different reactions from turkey. One options is that out of spite they could seek a comparable trade deal with a competitor. Some of their options are seeking entry into an Asian trading bloc, seeking a trade agreement with the US, or trying to create a Muslim trading bloc.
I have no opinion on the viability of them seeking entry into an Asian trading bloc (if one even exist). They do not really like America, but their is a small chance that they would be willing to join in a trade agreement out of spite, especially if our nation building projects turn our real good.
The third and final option is the most interesting one. There could be several Muslim nations, in the not so far flung future, that could be ready to exercise their collective power to compete against the EU. From my limited knowledge of the area some of the countries that come to mind are: Afghanistan (30 million), Iraq (25 million), Kuwait (2 million), Libya (5 million), Turkey (70 million), Pakistan ( 160 million). If all of the individual problems are solved at once, you could have a large group of people looking to make their lives better. If they collectively decide a trading block is the way to do that you could end up with some strange results.
The EU is able to provide some very power incentives to promote democratic reform and economic reform. Could a MU (Muslim Union) provide similar incentives? Possibly, if there was a strong core of members who supported the democratic polices they were trying export. The idea is an interesting thought experiment.